Bubble Watch 1.0: Week 9 Matchups with NCAA Tournament Implications

The stretch run of the college softball season is already upon us; at this point in the year, there are games and series’ every week that mean more than just wins and losses. There are postseason and NCAA tournament implications also at play, even now in early April.

Alongside our weekly Bracketology, we’re debuting Bubble Watch ahead of Week 9. In this space, you’ll find regular updates both ahead of and after key matchups, focusing on what they mean for the long-term postseason picture. A weekly series, you’ll want to bookmark each article and check back for updates through the course of each week’s games.

For Bubble Watch 1.0, a look at some Week 9 matchups that have postseason implications.

San Diego State @ UNLV

This Mountain West matchup pits #64 (UNLV) in the latest RPI vs. #80 (SDSU). Both teams have noteworthy wins and have started hot in conference play – San Diego State is 9-0 in league play, sweeping past Colorado State, Fresno State, and Nevada; UNLV is 5-1 in conference, dropping a game in their series against Nevada and earning a 3-game sweep over Boise State. This series is a big one for the Mountain West conference race; SDSU’s wins to this point have been against unimpressive teams, whereas UNLV’s sweep at Boise State was the exact opposite. If UNLV wins the series, it puts the Rebels firmly in the driver’s seat for the conference race. If SDSU wins the series, it gives the Aztecs their first league wins to be able to hang their hats on.

Wichita State @ South Florida

Two top-50 RPI teams meet in an AAC matchup down in Tampa; South Florida is ranked #40, on the strength of a strong non-conference schedule, while Wichita State is #48 in the latest rankings. Both teams are in firm bubble territory for at-large NCAA tournament consideration; both the Bulls and Shockers have non-conference RPIs in the 40s, though both have less-than-stellar strength of schedule rankings (USF 132, Wichita State 69). A series win for either team keeps them in the top 50 and gives them something to boast about in league play; the latter factor is especially important when considering that UCF is still to come for Wichita State and already swept South Florida to begin the conference slate.

Arizona State @ Oregon

This one is all about hosting potential. Right now, we have Arizona State as a top-16 hosting seed and Oregon forced to travel as a regional 2-seed. The results of this series could change or solidify those fortunes. Oregon is 0-5 against opponents in the top 25 in RPI; Arizona State is 2-1 in the same category. Both teams have performed well against teams ranked 26-50; ASU is 9-1 in that category while Oregon is 6-2. The series is in Eugene, which will also be a notable factor depending on the eventual result.

North Carolina @ Louisville

These are two ACC teams that have struggled mightily this season, but are still in the top 50 in RPI; Louisville is 43rd, while North Carolina is #50. Both teams are nearing the .500 mark, which is obviously a non-starter for any level of postseason consideration. Both teams are also sub-par in league play, so this series means a lot for both squads and will give some much-coveted wins to whichever dugout proves victorious.

Western Kentucky @ UAB

A battle of divisional leaders in Conference USA is also a battle of top-50 RPI clubs; for the second consecutive year, both WKU and UAB are in bubble territory. Western Kentucky leads the CUSA East, 9-3 in conference, while UAB is 8-1 and leads the West division. Neither team is the highest-ranked team in the RPI, though – that honor belongs to Charlotte. A series sweep on either side of this one could cement the winner as a true tournament contender; a series split could keep both teams in play there for the time being.