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In case you missed it, check out Bracketology 9.0 – our most updated and final postseason predictions – by clicking here.
It is finally Selection Sunday! The NCAA tournament field of 64 will be officially announced tonight. After our final Bracketology release this morning, here’s a more in-depth look at the ten teams we have on either side of the Bubble – five in and five out – to play in the postseason.
In: Arizona
The Wildcats are the team we project to be “#64”, the last team into the field. The last-place finishers in the PAC-12, the Wildcats reaching the tournament would mean they vault over the 7th- and 8th-place finishers Utah and Cal, respectively. The Wildcats are 33-20 overall, have a high-40s RPI, and boast eight wins over teams in the top-50 in RPI.
Those are the highlights; the Cats also have the 186th-best non-conference strength of schedule, a sub-.500 record against teams in the top-100 in RPI (15-20), and, again, finished in last place.
Arizona IS a major brand in softball but their historical significance isn’t what could be the determining factor in getting into the field; that criterion might turn out to be their lack of bad losses. The Cats did not drop a game to any of the teams they played in quad 4 (RPI 101+). That’s important at this stage.
Perhaps the best way to describe Arizona’s 2022 resume is the same way I said it on a live show this weekend; it’s very “meh”. Nothing spectacular, nothing totally egregious. And this is a very “meh” bubble year; the combination of the two, plus Arizona’s status as a brand as a tiebreaker if needed, and the Cats are likely into the field.
Out: Western Kentucky
The Hilltoppers are the first team out (“65”) in our projections. WKU lost out in the CUSA championship game on Saturday, losing in run-rule fashion to North Texas, but boast a #40 RPI and a CUSA East Division championship. The shining star on WKU’s resume is a home win against Alabama a few weeks ago, their only top-25 win and one of three top-50 wins (the other two were a series win over Charlotte).
Working against the Toppers: Four losses against Quad 3 teams and two losses against Quad 4 teams, as well as the 85th-best strength of schedule in the country. None of those metrics will be redeeming qualities that could help WKU out in a virtual “tiebreaker” situation.
Conference USA, a strong conference at one point in the year, also faded a bit down the stretch. That also doesn’t work in WKU’s favor.
The Hilltoppers could still sneak into the field, but at whose expense that would have to be makes the road into the postseason a bit more precarious.