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As the regular season hits the home stretch of its final five weeks, there are NCAA tournament bubble implications in play across the nation.
Based on our projections in Bracketology 3.0 (linked here), some matchups to keep an eye on for their implications on the NCAA tournament bubble, hosting bubble, and that could otherwise have effects on postseason seedings and qualifying.
Arizona State @ Utah — Two teams that boast RPIs in the mid-30s and should both be fairly safely into the postseason at this point, this series is nevertheless important for both teams. Coming off a series win over Washington, Arizona State entered the postseason field for the first time in our projections this week. The Sun Devils moved into that mid-30s RPI position on the strength of their two wins over the rival Huskies, a pair of top-25 wins that will age well. Utah was on the other side of the coin in their series against Cal, losing a pair of games to the Bears. While neither team currently looks in danger of losing their postseason spot, both teams also need this series win. Back-to-back series wins for ASU would put the Sun Devils in a good position and help them continue to climb into a potential regional 2-seed. For Utah, losing back-to-back series’ would set the Utes onto a less-than-ideal skid at the wrong time. The Utes do have to be careful that they don’t play into their lack of poseason precedent, perhaps the one thing that could work against them.
Indiana @ Minnesota — The Hoosiers have currently played themselves into the NCAA tournament field on the strength of their 22-game winning streak; a team that looked nearly listless at the TaxAct Clearwater Invitational now looks like a completely different team. The Hoosiers are an undefeated 8-0 in conference play, currently sitting atop the Big Ten standings. Minnesota is 2-4 in league play, 21-14 overall, and firmly on the postseason bubble. This series is in Minneapolis, the latter part of a 6-game conference homestand for Minnesota and an important factor. Putting a halt to the Hoosiers’ winning streak has to be the top priority on the Gophers’ minds, especially considering the value that a series win over IU would have on their RPI and their conference standing. Every win matters at this point for Minnesota, but wins over higher-ranked RPI teams matter a bit more. IU has come on strong in the last few weeks and seem to be in fairly good position for a postseason berth; every win just adds positively to their own postseason case.
Southern Miss @ Texas State — “Team #68”, as you could refer to them based on our latest Bracketology, Texas State has squandered some good opportunities to solidify their own postseason chances and now must settle for simply winning to better their postseason case. The Bobcats won games over Alabama and Texas, two of the best wins among bubble teams, but turned right around and failed to win a game in a conference series against Troy (going 0-2-1). Now hosting Southern Miss, a winless 0-9 in conference play, the Bobcats really need a series sweep to bolster their win-loss record. After this series, the Bobcats will face Sam Houston State and Texas in midweek action, play a conference series against Louisiana-Lafayette, then another midweek against Texas A&M. This suddenly becomes a majorly-important series for Texas State.
Wichita State @ Memphis — Through no fault of their own, the Shockers could go 3-0 this weekend and still see their RPI drop a bit. No one gets to choose their conference competition though, something that the Softball Committee does know, and their usual high-octane offensive showing would serve the Shockers well as the follow-up to their midweek win over Oklahoma State. Quietly, the Shockers are setting themselves up to at least be considered for a regional hosting opportunity. The Shockers have seen their RPI rise – and moreso following the OSU victory – and are now at least a factor in the postseason hosting conversation.
Kentucky @ Ole Miss — Right now, the Rebels are counting wins. The magic number that is finishing the year at .500 has to be the program’s top priority. The mission is simple for Ole Miss at this point: Finish above .500, you’re likely an easy ‘IN’ to the NCAA tournament; finish below .500, there’s not even a discussion to be had. The Rebels are playing 54 games, making their necessary win count 28 to guarantee postseason eligibility. The Rebels are at 22-16 on the year at this point; taking advantage of hosting an up-and-down UK team would certainly be in the Rebels’ best interests. For Kentucky, there is still a slim hope of hosting a regional and each win and loss factors into that possibility – losing a single game isn’t earth-shattering, though losing a series could put an end to their hopes to host.