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With one week left to go in the 2023 regular season, the SEC softball scene is in an interesting place. Let’s break some things down.
Leading the Pack
Tennessee leads the league with a 17-3 conference record, with their series finale against Arkansas still to be played on Monday night. The Lady Vols will play host to South Carolina next weekend to finish the regular season. Should the Lady Vols beat Arkansas on Monday night, one win over South Carolina will clinch the SEC regular-season title. If Tennessee loses to Arkansas on Monday, they’ll need two wins next weekend to secure the regular-season crown.
Georgia, currently in second place in the league, had a game rained out against Mississippi State – as things stand right now, the Bulldogs and the Lady Vols are not mathematically able to tie so someone will win the regular-season title outright.
.500 Watch
After Ole Miss’ win over Florida on Saturday and Mississippi State’s series sweep over Kentucky this weekend, all thirteen SEC teams have now secured .500 records for the season. The two Mississippi schools were the last teams hovering around that line, and both did what they had to do to ensure NCAA tournament eligibility.
Both teams are five games over the .500 mark after the weekend; Mississippi State has four regular-season games remaining while Ole Miss has three left. Even if both teams lose their first game in the SEC tournament, they’ll both still be at or above .500 on the year.
RPI
After the weekend sweep, Mississippi State has moved up to #47 in Monday morning’s RPI. Missouri, sitting in last place in the league standings, checks in at #44 in the RPI after losing the series at Texas A&M.
The Bulldogs and Tigers are the only teams in real RPI potential danger; the next-closest team is South Carolina at #37 in the RPI on Monday.
LSU remains at the top of the conference heap in the RPI, though they fell back to #8 in Monday’s rankings. Tennessee is one spot behind at #9, a position that could improve with a win over Arkansas on Monday but should not fall back if the Lady Vols take a loss in the series finale.
Five SEC teams stand in the top-16 in RPI on Monday – LSU, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia. Auburn and Florida are #20 and #21, respectively.
Tournament Byes
If the regular season ended today, Tennessee, Georgia, Auburn, and Arkansas would be the top four seeds in the SEC tournament and would earn first-round byes.
Auburn holds a one-win lead over Arkansas for the #3 spot; the Hogs will either tie for the #3 spot or fall a full game behind the Tigers based on Monday night’s result against Tennessee in Fayetteville.
Should Arkansas lose to Tennessee, they would sport a matching record as Alabama at 12-9; the tiebreaker would go to Arkansas by virtue of their series win in Tuscaloosa earlier in the year.
A total of seven teams are still mathematically in play for a top-4 seed in the SEC tournament.
Next Week’s Schedule Implications
Kentucky vs. Florida, LSU vs. Georgia, and Missouri vs. Arkansas are all crucial matchups across the board.
Kentucky will host Florida; the Wildcats are already guaranteed a sub-.500 record in conference play and will look to rebound after being swept by Mississippi State. Three wins could put Florida in position to sneak into a top-4 spot, depending on how other results shake out.
Georgia’s trip to Baton Rouge has major implications for both teams. Georgia still has a mathematical chance to be SEC champions, though they do not control their own destiny. A series win or sweep in Baton Rouge certainly improves their national standing, too, though. LSU has their high RPI, but also could finish at .500 in league play with a series loss to Georgia.
Arkansas’ trip to Missouri will be the Hogs’ chance to clinch the top-4 spot in which they currently find themselves; the Hogs do have the standing to control their own destiny, while Missouri would love nothing more than to play spoiler in the last week of the year -and help their own postseason cause besides.