Spontaneous Mailbag: Let’s Talk College Softball Postseason

Careful for what?

Mississippi State’s postseason eligibility is in the balance – a sub-.500 record and they’re not even a consideration on Selection Sunday. *If* they manage to finish above .500, what consideration they do get is not likely to be particularly favorable.

Expounding: Despite being in the SEC, a team like Mississippi State isn’t guaranteed to get the benefit of the doubt from the Softball Committee. The Bulldogs’ high RPI is indicative of a less-than-favorable overall product and is a metric that the committee can rely on to keep them out of the field of 64.

[They can] probably add some low quality mid week games to the schedule.

Worked for Mizzou a few years ago.

Seems like an easy answer to the .500 issue, yes, but at a #50 (or worse, potentially) RPI, MSU can’t afford to take more hits there either. That kind of RPI is bad news even for an SEC team.

Expounding: This isn’t an option for Mississippi State. The Mizzou mention refers to 2018, when the Tigers bought themselves out of a scheduled midweek game against Wichita State and scheduled in its place a doubleheader against Arkansas-Pine Bluff in order to guarantee a win-loss record over .500. In 2018, Missouri had no RPI issues and were in the mid-20s; Mississippi State is in the low 50s and likely will be mid-50s after a weekend sweep at the hands of LSU. Playing games, even “guaranteed wins” against lower-tier opponents would hurt their RPI despite helping their win-loss record, a classic “cut off your nose to spite your face” scenario.

Are Missouri and Ole Miss in trouble too? Ole Miss with RPI and record, Missouri just on resume?

Yes to both. Ole Miss has bad losses and a tough path left; Missouri’s RPI actually entered the weekend a spot behind Mississippi State’s. None of the three shoud be sitting very comfortably right now; the conference logo on their jerseys is their best crutch.

I don’t see how [Mississippi State] can be in the field right now. JMO.

I also don’t believe they should be in the tournament field. When I look at the full body of work, I don’t see any evidence to back them up as one of the ~40 best teams in the country.

How are you feeling about Arizona and Arizona State?

Not great about either, but more optimistic for Arizona than for Arizona State.

ASU is 21-20 now. They still have to play Stanford, Oregon St, & the PAC tourney. Finishing at .500 is their biggest worry; their RPI is high & dangerous, but potentially irrelevant.

I like Arizona’s prospects much more – four games over .500, median RPI, and they close the season w/ six games at home vs. Oregon State & Cal. They have to execute, but the recipe is there for them to make their case and record exponentially better.

A single loss to Liberty shouldn’t hurt UCA’s resume should it?

Won’t hurt them in the least. At this point, barring an earth-shattering collapse down the home stretch, UCA is a postseason team with or without the ASun automatic bid – and that collapse would have to be of epic proportions to knock them totally out, honestly.

Who are the mid major teams you think are a lock for the tournament?

Of the non-Power 5s, Central Arkansas, Louisiana, and Wichita State are the only teams that I think are absolute slam dunks to get in. I’d call UCF a pretty safe bet. Charlotte *should* be in (if I’m on the committee, they’re in), but a strong finish would certainly help.

Liberty is one of those teams where, if you asked me do I believe they are one of the best 64 teams in the nation, I would say yes. Can I back that up with tangible evidence, possibly. They have just one Quad 4 loss, wins over Alabama/Charlotte/Central Arkansas, and the #7 non-conference strength of schedule.

TX [State]?

As enigmatic of a mid-major contender as can be. The Bobcats had those wins-heard-round-the-world over Alabama and Texas, then have proceeded to go 9-7-1 in conference play. Prior to their weekend in Austin, Texas State’s resume already had some blemishes, including losses to New Mexico State, Winthrop, and Villanova. The Bobcats have avoided egregious losses in conference play, but I’m not sure any of it is enough to truly get them into the conversation again. With Sun Belt series’ against Marshall and James Madison still to go, finishing strong would certainly play in the Bobcats’ favor.

When was the last time the [SEC] had 3 teams left out of the tourney?

The mid-2000s were not kind to SEC softball programs; it’s in more recent times that the league has come on so strong. In 2008, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and South Carolina all missed the NCAA tournament; two years earlier, in 2006, a total of five SEC squads (Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, South Carolina) were on the outside looking into the postseason.

My question is do you think [Louisiana] has any chance of hosting a Regional Championship?

A few weeks ago, I would have said yes; now, despite a top-16 RPI, I don’t see any way. The most glaring reasons why are a lack of top-25 wins and some less-than-stellar losses in conference play. Wins over LSU and Florida have aged well for the Cajuns, as has a victory over Indiana in Clearwater, but the total resume just isn’t there. The midweek games against Baylor and Texas A&M two weeks ago were crucial and the Cajuns lost them both; with those games went the Cajuns’ chances to host, at least the way I see it.

What is Alabama’s ceiling in seeding if they lose the series to LSU, win series over Ole miss and go one and done in SEC tourney?

Following Sunday’s game and series loss to Auburn, Alabama sits at 34-15 overall, 10-8 in the SEC. As a quick reminder of their resume, the Crimson Tide own wins over Duke, UCF, Indiana, Florida State, and Texas, with losses to UCLA, Texas, Wisconsin, Texas State, and Liberty in non-conference play. The Tide have the #5 overall strength of schedule, #13 non-conference SOS, have one Quad 4 loss and three Quad 3 losses.

The short version is that Alabama is going to get a favorable seed (i.e. not #16, even if they earn that) based on reputation and the strength of schedule metrics. This is not a great team, by any standards, but those numbers work in their favor. If the Tide stay on a median path the rest of the way, a seed somewhere between 11-14 seems appropriate.

What about the Big 10?

I got this question, in various forms, a couple of times over the weekend, so I threw it in here to be able to expound on it a bit publicly.

Right now, the Big 10 has one good team – Northwestern; a couple of fairly solid teams – Nebraska and Michigan; a couple of teams that seem to have promise – Minnesota and Indiana; and then there’s the rest of the league. To be fair, even the team on these upper tiers have not been without their struggles – that “one good team” got annihilated by Michigan on Saturday, 15-0.

Call the conference enigmatic, call it parity-filled, but whatever your chosen designation, where the league stands at this point is in such an intriguing place. First and foremost, the Big 10 will almost assuredly get more teams into the NCAA tournament than have earned the right to be there. Right now, I could not justify even all of those five as having iron-clad cases to be among the best 40 teams in the country, much less any more. Maryland seems to be playing themselves out of tournament contention in a hurry, while Wisconsin is struggling and Ohio State did their best to lose the series to Purdue but managed to emerge with two wins themselves.

The Big 10 is certainly seen favorably in the committee room, possibly because there are so many teams that cannibalize each other on the league’s top few tiers. If we’re talking about picking the best teams in the country, though, only a few of the B1G squads should even be included in the discussion.